by Niharika Bandaru
This article is written in response to CTV News' report on Windsor's warmest winter in decades.
Windsor-Essex finds itself at the forefront of a unique climatic shift. In the heart of it, a remarkable winter defies expectations and rewrites the weather books. With temperatures surging beyond 22°C, our region has had several record-breaking temperature days this season—we've even broken an all-time hottest temperature record for February.
But what has been driving this shift? Is it just an anomaly or the face of things to come? With the recent Equinox welcoming a chilly Spring, let’s dive into climate changes and consequences.
"... climate change will significantly impact El Niño-La Niña weather patterns approximately by 2030" (Image credit: IAS Parliament)
Environment and Climate Change Canada credits the El Niño phenomenon as the core influence that is shaping weather patterns across the globe these past six months. According to the National Geographic, “El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. [It] is the 'warm phase' of a larger phenomenon called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).” El Niño shakes up ocean temperatures, current speeds and intensities, coastal fisheries, and local weather across vast global regions from Australia to South America and beyond. It doesn't stick to a strict schedule like clockwork, happening every two to seven years, and it's far less predictable than the ebb and flow of ocean tides.
Windsor-Essex has had its fair share of encounters with ENSO, feeling its impact in the past; but don't get too comfortable—this doesn't quite explain this winter's record-breaking levels of warmth. While it's true that a robust El Niño has kept the season relatively mild, experts from NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory warn that our region has been on a warming trajectory for decades due to climate change.
Data graphs of the ice cover on Lake Erie from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (NOAA)
Along with the temperatures, the Great Lakes have also set a new record this mild winter; according to the latest figures from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), all five Great Lakes are currently experiencing their lowest ice levels on record for this time of year. As of March 11, a mere 1.21% of the Great Lakes are covered in ice—a stark contrast to the nearly 39% coverage observed on the same date in 2022. Particularly noteworthy is the minimal ice coverage on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, which paints a vivid picture of the unusual warmth gripping the region (WoodTV, 2024).
So what does this mean in plain terms? Well, less ice spells trouble for our shorelines, leaving them more vulnerable to erosion and the pounding forces of nature. With less Lake ice and milder temperatures, expect more overcast skies and rain rather than snow. The ecosystem balance in the Lake is upturned and may mean less food for Lake fish to feed on. On terra firma, a toasty winter sets the stage for disrupted hibernation and migration patterns for animals and birds. Without a consistent freeze, insects like black-legged ticks get to throw a pest party and continue to grow and spread throughout the region. There are possibilities of a frost that could kill plants that bloom early and harm animals that hibernate. While some might relish less time spent shoveling snow and more opportunities to soak up the sun, such rapid changes put a strain on the delicate balance of life around us, leaving many organisms struggling to keep up with the pace of change.
The La Niña Story
La Niña Phenomenon (Image credit: IAS Parliament)
The sister to the warmer El Nino is La Niña, which holds the potential to sway the weather patterns the other way. While El Niño brought warmth and moderation, La Niña is a climate pattern that tends to occur soon after El Niño and brings on opposite cooler temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. If La Niña does occur in 2024, meteorologists say it would begin in late summer or early fall. According to meteorologist Ross Hull, La Niña also tends to create a jet stream where a fast, narrow current of air blows across the globe from west to east; in Canada, the phenomenon will likely lead to more precipitation in the west coast, Ontario and Quebec.
bringing it home
The El Niño and La Niña events remind us of how intricate and interconnected the pieces that make up our planet's climate are. From warm waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that shake up global weather, to low levels of lake ice that will likely lead to a strain on plant and animal life in coming weeks, everything is connected... and when one domino falls, so do all the others in time.
But we don't have to stand helplessly on the sidelines, watching dominos topple over; with some intervention and patience, our situation has the potential to greatly improve. By focusing on climate change mitigation with eco-initiatives at governmental and personal levels, we inherently also focus on disappearing animal life, vulnerable ecosystems in danger of collapsing, cost of living and damages related to unpredictable weather, and much more. Warm winters don't have to be our new normal. Part of the larger picture, our efforts count towards the grand scheme of our planet's climate.